Belief reliability analysis of multi-state deteriorating systems under epistemic uncertainty

Due to the growing complexity of multi-state deteriorating systems and lack data, information knowledge, epistemic uncertainty cannot be ignored anymore. Although there already exist some reliability metrics deal with problems in systems, final results provided by these methods are always probability intervals, which will suffer from interval extension challenge subsequent operation. In this paper, we propose a analysis method for system based on belief theory, can provide more conservative estimations avoid problems. To describe state transition process under effect uncertainty, mathematical model called uncertain chain is proposed. Under framework total inequality given assist calculation reliability. Using proposed inequality, an algorithm considering inspection time provided. As numerical example, calculating process, evaluation result discussions specific at last.